{"id":594,"date":"2026-09-05T01:56:09","date_gmt":"2026-09-05T01:56:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dinarview.com\/?p=594"},"modified":"2026-09-08T17:16:51","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T17:16:51","slug":"dv-seasonal-currency-fluctuations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dinarview.com\/tr\/dv-seasonal-currency-fluctuations\/","title":{"rendered":"Irak’ta Mevsimsel D\u00f6viz Kuru Dalgalanmalar\u0131: Ramazan, Erbain ve B\u00fct\u00e7e D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc Kuru Nas\u0131l Etkiler"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

DinarView kullan\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu ayn\u0131 soruyu tekrar tekrar sorar: Irak’ta dolar al\u0131p satmak i\u00e7in y\u0131l\u0131n “en iyi” bir zaman\u0131 var m\u0131? K\u0131sa cevap \u015fu ki, paralel piyasa d\u00f6viz kuru ger\u00e7ekten de dini ve toplumsal olaylara, devlet b\u00fct\u00e7e d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne ve petrol gelirlerine, ticaret ve havale hareketlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 tekrarlayan mevsimsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerle hareket ediyor. Bu rehber, kesin rakamlar iddia etmeden bu \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri nitel olarak a\u00e7\u0131klayarak, y\u0131l boyunca kendi transferlerinizin zamanlamas\u0131n\u0131 daha bilin\u00e7li planlaman\u0131za yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmay\u0131 ama\u00e7l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Resmi Kur ve Paralel Kur: Temel Bilgiler<\/h2>\n

Irak Merkez Bankas\u0131 (CBI), \u015eubat 2023’ten bu yana resmi d\u00f6viz kurunu yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.310 Irak dinar\u0131\/ABD dolar\u0131 olarak belirlemi\u015ftir; bu kur, d\u00f6viz penceresi, resmi transferler ve kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lan kurdur. Ba\u011fdat, Erbil, S\u00fcleymaniye ve di\u011fer illerdeki d\u00f6viz b\u00fcrolar\u0131ndan olu\u015fan paralel piyasada ise kur genellikle resmi kurdan y\u00fcksektir ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck arz-talebe g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fir. \u0130ki kur aras\u0131ndaki bu fark, mevsimsel zamanlaman\u0131n neden \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klar: nakit dolara olan talebin y\u00fckseldi\u011fi d\u00f6nemler bu fark\u0131 geni\u015fletme e\u011filimindeyken, sakin d\u00f6nemler fark\u0131 g\u00f6rece daraltabilir.<\/p>\n

Ramazan ve \u0130ki Bayram: Nakit Talebinin Zirve Sezonu<\/h2>\n

M\u00fcbarek Ramazan ay\u0131, Irak’\u0131n ekonomik faaliyetindeki en belirgin mevsimsel \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclerden biridir. Ay yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, Ramazan ve ard\u0131ndan gelen Ramazan Bayram\u0131’na haz\u0131rl\u0131k amac\u0131yla ithal t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131na -g\u0131da, giyim, ev aletleri- olan talep artar. \u0130thalattaki bu art\u0131\u015f, t\u00fcccarlar\u0131n ithalat\u0131 ve d\u0131\u015f \u00f6deme akreditiflerini finanse etmek i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz talebinin y\u00fckselmesine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015fayan Irakl\u0131lar\u0131n ailelerine Ramazan ve Bayram harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in ek para g\u00f6ndermesiyle havalelerde de art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr \u2014 bu da her y\u0131l bir\u00e7ok ki\u015finin “Ramazan’da dolar kuru” aramas\u0131 i\u00e7in tam da nedendir.<\/p>\n

Ramazan Bayram\u0131 yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a, seyahat, hediyeler ve alt\u0131n al\u0131mlar\u0131na daha fazla odaklan\u0131larak ayn\u0131 \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc tekrarlan\u0131r; bayram bittikten sonra talep g\u00f6rece yat\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Bu dalgan\u0131n daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir versiyonu, kurban al\u0131mlar\u0131 ve Irak i\u00e7i ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131 aile seyahatlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Kurban Bayram\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde tekrar eder.<\/p>\n

Erbain Mevsimi: Nakit Hareketlili\u011finde Ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc Bir S\u0131\u00e7rama<\/h2>\n

Kerbela’ya yap\u0131lan Erbain ziyareti, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131ll\u0131k insan toplanmalar\u0131ndan biridir; \u0130ran, L\u00fcbnan, K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri ve Irak diasporas\u0131 dahil olmak \u00fczere Irak i\u00e7inden ve d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan milyonlarca ziyaret\u00e7i Kerbela ve Necef \u015fehirlerine ak\u0131n eder. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck ziyaret\u00e7i ak\u0131n\u0131, yo\u011fun bir nakit hareketlili\u011fiyle birlikte gelir: yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen ziyaret\u00e7iler taraf\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz bozdurma, konaklama, hizmet kervanlar\u0131 (mevakib) ve ula\u015f\u0131ma y\u00f6nelik yerel harcamalarda art\u0131\u015f, ve g\u00fcney illerinde birka\u00e7 hafta i\u00e7inde \u00e7e\u015fitli para birimlerinde nakit likidite talebinde bir s\u0131\u00e7rama. Pratikte, bir\u00e7ok yerel para bozdurucu bu d\u00f6nemde piyasay\u0131 yak\u0131ndan izlemeyi tavsiye eder, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc likidite hareketleri genellikle \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131nda genel bir kur de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden ziyade h\u0131zl\u0131 ve yerel yo\u011funluklu olma e\u011filimindedir.<\/p>\n

Mevsimleri kayda kar\u015f\u0131 s\u0131namak<\/h2>\n

Yukar\u0131dakilerin tamam\u0131 piyasan\u0131n kendisi hakk\u0131nda s\u00f6yledikleri. DinarView\u2019in may\u0131s 2022\u2019ye uzanan g\u00fcnl\u00fck bir dinar okumas\u0131 var ve bunu s\u0131namaya yeter. Sonu\u00e7 dikkatle okunmay\u0131 hak ediyor, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc anlat\u0131y\u0131 do\u011frulam\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Sezon<\/th>\n\u00d6nceki alt\u0131 hafta<\/th>\nSezon boyunca<\/th>\nDe\u011fi\u015fim<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Ramazan 2023<\/td>\n1,547<\/td>\n1,481<\/td>\n-4.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ramazan 2024<\/td>\n1,515<\/td>\n1,485<\/td>\n-2.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ramazan 2025<\/td>\n1,501<\/td>\n1,475<\/td>\n-1.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ramazan 2026<\/td>\n1,492<\/td>\n1,543<\/td>\n+3.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Erbain 2022<\/td>\n1,483<\/td>\n1,479<\/td>\n-0.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Erbain 2023<\/td>\n1,523<\/td>\n1,546<\/td>\n+1.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Erbain 2024<\/td>\n1,495<\/td>\n1,496<\/td>\n+0.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Erbain 2025<\/td>\n1,404<\/td>\n1,409<\/td>\n+0.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Erbain 2026<\/td>\n1,546<\/td>\n1,525<\/td>\n-1.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

Dolar ba\u015f\u0131na dinar, DinarView\u2019in toplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 piyasa kuru. Ramazan, kendinden \u00f6nceki alt\u0131 haftayla; Erbain ise Safer\u2019in yirmisinin iki yan\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7er haftayla, ondan \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 haftaya kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Pozitif de\u011fi\u015fim, dolar\u0131n pahal\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00d6nce ramazan. Kay\u0131ttaki d\u00f6rt ramazan\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnde dinar, ay boyunca kendinden \u00f6nceki alt\u0131 haftaya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4.3, 2.0 ve 1.7 ile daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcyd\u00fc<\/strong>. Yaln\u0131zca 2026 ters y\u00f6ne gitti; 2026 ayn\u0131 zamanda kurun ilk \u00e7eyrek boyunca ilgisiz nedenlerle y\u00fckseldi\u011fi y\u0131ld\u0131. Erbain daha da d\u00fcz: be\u015f sezon ve iki y\u00f6ndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck hareket y\u00fczde 1.5 \u2014 s\u0131radan bir \u00fc\u00e7 haftadan ay\u0131rt edilemeyecek t\u00fcrden bir say\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu, nakit talebinin hayal \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelmez. D\u00f6viz b\u00fcrolar\u0131 o haftalarda ger\u00e7ekten daha yo\u011fun \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r ve bayram \u00f6ncesi Kerrade\u2019de s\u0131ra beklemi\u015f herkes bunu bilir. Anlam\u0131 \u015fu: ek talep kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131yor \u2014 dolar arz\u0131 onunla birlikte geni\u015fliyor \u2014 bu y\u00fczden daha y\u00fcksek fiyat olarak de\u011fil, daha uzun kuyruklar olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fiyat\u0131 k\u0131tl\u0131k oynat\u0131r; arz edildi\u011fi s\u00fcrece izdiham oynatmaz.<\/p>\n

B\u00fct\u00e7e D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ve Mali Y\u0131l<\/h2>\n

Irak’\u0131n mali y\u0131l\u0131 takvim y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 (Ocak-Aral\u0131k) takip eder ve paralel piyasa hareketi, federal b\u00fct\u00e7e kanununun kabul\u00fcn\u00fcn zamanlamas\u0131, kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fc maa\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6denmesi ve Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n d\u00f6viz penceresi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131yla dolayl\u0131 olarak ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00fct\u00e7e onay\u0131n\u0131n gecikmesi veya kamu harcamalar\u0131 konusundaki gerginlik d\u00f6nemlerinde, piyasa ger\u00e7ek bir nakit arz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finden \u00e7ok beklentilerden kaynaklanan dalgalanmalar g\u00f6rebilir. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde, mali y\u0131l\u0131n sonu ve yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131, hem kamu hem de \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde genellikle idari ve muhasebe faaliyetleri getirir; bu bazen mali kapan\u0131\u015f ve hesap kapatma ama\u00e7l\u0131 dolar talebindeki de\u011fi\u015fimlerle birlikte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fir.<\/p>\n

Ticaret ve Havale Sezonlar\u0131: Yaz ve Yurt D\u0131\u015f\u0131nda E\u011fitim<\/h2>\n

Irak’\u0131n yaz mevsimi farkl\u0131 nedenlerle ba\u015fka bir zirve getirir: T\u00fcrkiye’ye, K\u00fcrdistan B\u00f6lgesi’ne ve kom\u015fu \u00fclkelere aile seyahatleri, ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda okuyan Irak \u00f6\u011frencilerinin, yaz sonu ve sonbahar ba\u015f\u0131nda \u00fcniversite har\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ve ya\u015fam giderlerini dolar olarak transfer etmeleri gereken yeni akademik y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131. Bu \u00f6\u011frenci transferleri, Ramazan ve Erbain dalgalar\u0131ndan daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli olsa da, her y\u0131l belirli zaman dilimlerinde talep \u00fczerinde ekstra bask\u0131 yarat\u0131r. Tar\u0131msal hasat mevsimi ve tar\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fclerine ba\u011fl\u0131 ticaret ile ithalat\/ihracat faaliyeti, \u00f6zellikle Basra, Musul ve Erbil gibi \u00f6nemli tar\u0131msal ve s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi ticari faaliyete sahip illerde belirgin olan, daha az g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr bir ba\u015fka katman ekler.<\/p>\n

Kayd\u0131n g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi \u015fey<\/h2>\n

Dinarda mevsimsel bir \u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc var. Yaln\u0131zca din\u00ee takvim de\u011fil. Her takvim ay\u0131n\u0131n kendi y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n normuna g\u00f6re ortalamas\u0131 net bir \u015fekil veriyor ve bu \u015fekil ay takvimini de\u011fil, mali y\u0131l\u0131 izliyor.<\/p>\n

-2.4<\/text>-1.28<\/text>-0.16<\/text>0.96<\/text>2.08<\/text>1.65<\/text>Jan<\/text>1.5<\/text>Feb<\/text>1.28<\/text>Mar<\/text>-0.89<\/text>Apr<\/text>-1.97<\/text>May<\/text>-1<\/text>Jun<\/text>-1.18<\/text>Jul<\/text>-0.51<\/text>Aug<\/text>-0.09<\/text>Sep<\/text>0.78<\/text>Oct<\/text>0.61<\/text>Nov<\/text>0.51<\/text>Dec<\/text>Y\u0131l\u0131n ortalamas\u0131ndan uzakl\u0131k, y\u00fczde<\/text><\/svg>
Her takvim ay\u0131n\u0131n kendi y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ortalama dinar kurundan ortalama uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131, y\u00fczde, DinarView\u2019in t\u00fcm g\u00fcnl\u00fck kayd\u0131nda (may\u0131s 2022 \u2013 eyl\u00fcl 2026). S\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fc, dolar\u0131n o y\u0131l\u0131n normundan pahal\u0131 oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Dolar, kendi y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n normuna g\u00f6re ocak, \u015fubat ve martta en pahal\u0131 \u2014 s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 1.65, 1.50 ve 1.28 \u2014 nisandan a\u011fustosa ise en ucuz; dip may\u0131sta, y\u00fczde -1.97 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da. Ekim ve kas\u0131m biraz yukar\u0131da. Bu bir b\u00fct\u00e7e d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn \u015fekli: federal b\u00fct\u00e7e y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda kabul edilir ya da tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r, ithalat akreditifleri buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r ve dolar talebi ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe \u00f6ne y\u00fcklenir. Ayr\u0131ca her iki y\u00f6nde de y\u00fczde ikinin alt\u0131nda kalan k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir etki \u2014 2023\u2019teki tek bir k\u00f6t\u00fc haftadan bile k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck.<\/p>\n

\u015eekle g\u00fcvenmeden \u00f6nce bir kontrol: o k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc 2023 ba\u015f\u0131ndaki krizi i\u00e7eriyor ve b\u00fct\u00fcn i\u015fi onlar yap\u0131yor olabilir. Aral\u0131k 2022 \u2013 mart 2023 tamamen \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ocak yar\u0131ya iniyor, y\u00fczde 1.65\u2019den 0.83\u2019e; \u015fubat ve mart neredeyse de\u011fi\u015fmeden 1.39 ve 1.17\u2019de kal\u0131yor; may\u0131s ise -1.74 ile h\u00e2l\u00e2 dip. \u00d6r\u00fcnt\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc kriz \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131ktan sonra da ayakta \u2014 d\u00f6rt bu\u00e7uk y\u0131ll\u0131k verinin d\u00fcr\u00fcst\u00e7e destekleyebilece\u011fi kadar\u0131 da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 yukar\u0131 bu.<\/p>\n

Transferlerinizi Mevsime G\u00f6re Nas\u0131l Planlars\u0131n\u0131z?<\/h2>\n