{"id":510,"date":"2026-09-01T04:27:48","date_gmt":"2026-09-01T04:27:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dinarview.com\/?p=510"},"modified":"2026-09-03T20:42:46","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T20:42:46","slug":"why-the-dollar-rate-moves-in-iraq","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dinarview.com\/tr\/why-the-dollar-rate-moves-in-iraq\/","title":{"rendered":"Irak\u2019ta dolar neden y\u00fckselip d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor: be\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7, d\u00f6rt y\u0131ll\u0131k veriyle \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Irak\u2019ta dolar\u0131n piyasa kuru rastgele de\u011fildir ve genellikle insanlar\u0131n su\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015feyler taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmez. Bir siyaset\u00e7i konu\u015ftu\u011fu i\u00e7in, \u201ct\u00fcccarlar\u201d \u00f6yle karar verdi\u011fi i\u00e7in ya da bir Telegram kanal\u0131ndaki s\u00f6ylenti y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u2014 bir iki saatli\u011fi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u2014 hareket etmez. Haftalar ve aylar \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde be\u015f sebeple hareket eder ve DinarView\u2019in May\u0131s 2022\u2019den beri tuttu\u011fu g\u00fcnl\u00fck kay\u0131t, bunlar\u0131n her birinin iddia edilmek yerine \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclmesine izin verir. Bu yaz\u0131 onlar\u0131, kuru ger\u00e7ekte ne kadar oynatt\u0131klar\u0131na g\u00f6re s\u0131ral\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

En b\u00fcy\u00fck be\u015f hareket ve sebepleri<\/h2>\n
-19.94<\/text>-9.77<\/text>0.4<\/text>10.57<\/text>20.74<\/text>16.8<\/text>Kas 22\u2013\u015eub 23<\/text>\u221216.0<\/text>\u015eub\u2013Nis 23<\/text>4.8<\/text>A\u011fu\u2013Kas 23<\/text>\u22127.1<\/text>Oca\u2013Tem 25<\/text>7.8<\/text>Oca 26<\/text>D\u00f6nem boyunca piyasa kurundaki de\u011fi\u015fim, y\u00fczde<\/text><\/svg>
DinarView\u2019in kayd\u0131 May\u0131s 2022\u2019de ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri piyasa kurundaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck be\u015f hareket; her d\u00f6nemin ba\u015f\u0131ndan sonuna y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fim olarak. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fc dolar arz\u0131yla ilgiliydi; biri resm\u00ee kur de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiydi; biri de bir arz s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne binen mevsimsel taleple.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
D\u00f6nem<\/th>\nNereden<\/th>\nNereye<\/th>\nDe\u011fi\u015fim<\/th>\nAna g\u00fc\u00e7<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Kas\u0131m 2022 \u2013 \u015eubat 2023<\/td>\n1,480<\/td>\n1,728 (zirve)<\/td>\n+16.8%<\/td>\nDolar arz\u0131: yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 transferlerde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan uyum, piyasaya ula\u015fan\u0131 kesti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u015eubat \u2013 Nisan 2023<\/td>\n1,728<\/td>\n1,451<\/td>\n\u221216.0%<\/td>\nPolitika: resm\u00ee kurun 1.450\u2019den 1.300\u2019e indirilmesi b\u00fct\u00fcn merdiveni a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
A\u011fustos \u2013 Kas\u0131m 2023<\/td>\n1,528<\/td>\n1,602<\/td>\n+4.8%<\/td>\nArz s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 art\u0131 sonbahar ithalat talebi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ocak \u2013 Temmuz 2025<\/td>\n1,508<\/td>\n1,401<\/td>\n\u22127.1%<\/td>\nDolar arz\u0131: bankalar \u00fczerinden piyasaya daha \u00e7ok resm\u00ee dolar ula\u015fmas\u0131<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ocak 2026<\/td>\n1,440<\/td>\n1,553<\/td>\n+7.8%<\/td>\nDolar arz\u0131: pencerede bir kesinti<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

DinarView\u2019in derledi\u011fi piyasa kurundan ayl\u0131k ortalamalar ve zirveler, dolar ba\u015f\u0131na dinar.<\/p>\n

1. Piyasaya ne kadar dolar ula\u015f\u0131yor<\/h2>\n

Be\u015f d\u00f6nemin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck olanlar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun arkas\u0131ndaki g\u00fc\u00e7 budur. Irak\u2019\u0131n dolar\u0131 devletin satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrolden gelir; Merkez Bankas\u0131 bunlar\u0131 g\u00fcnl\u00fck penceresinden resm\u00ee kurdan ekonomiye satar \u2014 bankalara, onayl\u0131 ithalata ve nakit sat\u0131\u015flara. O dolarlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131k piyasaya s\u0131zan pay\u0131 \u2014 pencereden al\u0131p fazlas\u0131n\u0131 satan t\u00fcccarlar, bankalar\u0131n nakit sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131, yolcular yoluyla \u2014 sokak piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 arz\u0131 belirler. 2022 sonundaki uyum kurallar\u0131nda ve Ocak 2026\u2019daki kesintide oldu\u011fu gibi pencere darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sokak fiyat\u0131 g\u00fcnler i\u00e7inde y\u00fckselir. 2025 boyunca oldu\u011fu gibi gev\u015fedi\u011finde, fiyat aylarca d\u00fc\u015fer.<\/p>\n

3 Eyl\u00fcl 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 18 olan resm\u00ee kur ile piyasa kuru aras\u0131ndaki fark, pencereden ge\u00e7menin bedelidir. Pencere darald\u0131k\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131r, geni\u015fledik\u00e7e daral\u0131r. Kuru okumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan herkes \u00f6nce pencereye bakmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n

2. \u0130thalat talebi<\/h2>\n

Irak t\u00fcketti\u011finin \u00e7o\u011funu ithal eder ve pencereden dolar alamayan ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar piyasadan al\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla talep ithalat takvimiyle y\u00fckselir: ramazan ve iki bayram \u00f6ncesi, eyl\u00fclde okullar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131, k\u0131\u015fl\u0131k yak\u0131t ve jenerat\u00f6r mevsimi ve nakitle u\u00e7anlar i\u00e7in yaz seyahat mevsimi. Kay\u0131tta bu, kurun yaz sonu ve sonbaharda sertle\u015fme e\u011filimi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr \u2014 2023\u2019te (a\u011fustostan kas\u0131ma, +%4,8) ve 2024\u2019te (temmuzdan ekime, +%2,3) oldu\u011fu gibi \u2014 ve ramazan zirvesi ge\u00e7tikten sonra ilkbaharda yumu\u015fama olarak.<\/p>\n

\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Mevsim<\/th>\nTipik y\u00f6n<\/th>\nNeden<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Ramazan ve bayram \u00f6ncesi<\/td>\nDaha sert<\/td>\nG\u0131da ve mal ithalat\u0131, hediyeler, seyahat<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0130lkbahar sonu<\/td>\nDaha yumu\u015fak<\/td>\nBayramlardan sonra talep gev\u015fer<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Yaz sonu \u2013 sonbahar<\/td>\nDaha sert<\/td>\nOkula d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, k\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi stoklama, ziyaret seyahatleri<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Cuma, haftal\u0131k<\/td>\nDonmu\u015f<\/td>\nPiyasan\u0131n tatili; tablolar per\u015fembe kapan\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tutar<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n

DinarView\u2019in kayd\u0131ndaki mevsimsel e\u011filimler; bir arz \u015foku hepsini ge\u00e7ersiz k\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

3. Resm\u00ee kurun kendisi<\/h2>\n

\u00c7\u0131padaki bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik b\u00fct\u00fcn merdiveni oynat\u0131r. Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u015eubat 2023\u2019te resm\u00ee kuru 1.450\u2019den 1.300\u2019e indirdi\u011finde, arz ve talep hakk\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fmedi\u011fi h\u00e2lde piyasa iki ay i\u00e7inde 1.728 zirvesinden 1.451\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc; y\u00fczde on alt\u0131. Tersi Aral\u0131k 2020\u2019de, DinarView\u2019in kayd\u0131ndan \u00f6nce oldu: 1.182\u2019den 1.450\u2019ye deval\u00fcasyon sokak kurunu da yukar\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Resm\u00ee kur yirmi y\u0131lda yaln\u0131zca iki kez oynad\u0131; yani nadir bir g\u00fc\u00e7t\u00fcr, ama harekete ge\u00e7ti\u011finde en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

4. T\u00fcmen ve b\u00f6lge<\/h2>\n

\u0130ran t\u00fcmeni 2018\u2019de dolar ba\u015f\u0131na 8.700\u2019den 2026\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k 170.000\u2019e d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve \u0130ran, Irak\u2019\u0131n kara yoluyla en b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 kayna\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Ucuzlayan t\u00fcmen \u0130ran mallar\u0131n\u0131 dinar cinsinden ucuzlat\u0131r ve dolar talebinin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131, dolar\u0131n takas paras\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u0131n\u0131r ticaretine kayd\u0131r\u0131r; \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 dolardan kesen yapt\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6nemleri ise o talebin daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 Irak piyasas\u0131na iter. Etki sert de\u011fil, s\u00fcreklidir: ulusal kurdan \u00e7ok, t\u00fcmeni euronun yan\u0131nda kote eden Erbil tablolar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

5. Haber, bir saatli\u011fine<\/h2>\n

Siyasi bir haber, bankadan bir a\u00e7\u0131klama, pencereye dair bir s\u00f6ylenti tablolar\u0131 an\u0131nda ve k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine oynat\u0131r. Kifah borsas\u0131ndaki t\u00fcccarlar dakikalar i\u00e7inde yeniden fiyatlar, Erbil tablolar\u0131 bir saat i\u00e7inde izler; haber arz konusunda bir \u015feyi de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyorsa ertesi sabaha kalmadan kur eski yerine d\u00f6ner. DinarView\u2019in kayd\u0131, iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde geri al\u0131nan y\u00fcz ba\u015f\u0131na 500 ila 1.000 dinarl\u0131k pek \u00e7ok tek g\u00fcnl\u00fck s\u0131\u00e7rama g\u00f6sterir. Bir haber s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ek bir hareketten ay\u0131rman\u0131n yolu ikinci sabah\u0131 beklemektir: Ba\u011fdat, haberden \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn\u00fc kapatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerde a\u00e7\u0131yorsa, o g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcyd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Kuru oynatmayanlar<\/h2>\n